New climate modeling suggests our planet’s living systems may have a different endurance level than previous estimates suggested.

Science

The countdown to the end of life on Earth just changed

Alvaro Valladares Calum Roche

Update: Jul 12th, 2026 11:52 EDT

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The future of life on Earth is closely tied to the survival of plants, which form the foundation of almost every food chain on the planet.

At the heart of that system is the Sun. But as our star ages, it will gradually become brighter and more energetic before reaching the end of its life in around 5 billion years.

What is the predicted end date for life on Earth?

Long before then, however, conditions on Earth are expected to become too harsh for photosynthetic life as the Sun’s increasing brightness drives up global temperatures. For years, scientists estimated that this tipping point would arrive in roughly 100 million years. Now, a new study suggests Earth’s plant life could endure for 1.8 billion years instead.

What happens to life as the Sun ages?

The long-term future of Earth’s biosphere depends on the Sun. As it grows older and more luminous, temperatures on our planet will continue to rise, eventually making it impossible for photosynthetic organisms to survive.

The problem is compounded by Earth’s own natural climate regulation. Over geological timescales, carbon dioxide is gradually removed from the atmosphere as it becomes locked away in rocks. While this process helps regulate global temperatures, it also reduces the CO₂ that plants need for photosynthesis.

Based on this balance between rising temperatures and falling carbon dioxide levels, previous studies concluded that Earth’s photosynthetic biosphere had only around 100 million years remaining.

But a recent study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres argues that life may prove far more resilient than previously believed.

Why scientists think plants could survive much longer

Using 29 different climate models, researchers simulated two possible futures for Earth based on changing temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

One scenario assumed a planet that became too hot for life despite having enough CO₂ available. The other explored a world with relatively stable temperatures but carbon dioxide concentrations too low to support photosynthesis.

The results suggested that even under significantly reduced CO₂ levels, many plant species and marine photosynthetic organisms would still be capable of surviving. Since these organisms underpin nearly all ecosystems on Earth, their continued existence would allow the planet’s broader biosphere to persist for at least another 1.8 billion years.

Not every scientist is convinced

The findings have been met with skepticism by some researchers.

Speaking to Live Science, Andrew Rushby, an astrobiologist at Birkbeck, University of London, said the study relies on what he described as “general estimates.”

Rushby also noted that it is impossible to predict how Earth’s photosynthetic biosphere might evolve in response to increasing solar radiation and declining carbon dioxide levels over such immense timescales.

Despite those reservations, one of the study’s authors said the research demonstrates that Earth’s climate and biological systems may be far more resilient than previously thought, suggesting the planet’s living ecosystems could have a much longer future ahead than earlier models predicted.