Trump's orange crumbles to World War II levels

Florida’s orange industry – once a cornerstone of U.S. agriculture – is facing its worst crisis since World War II. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the projected harvest for the 2024–2025 season is just 11.5 million boxes, marking a staggering 30% drop from the previous year.

What’s happening to the Florida orange industry?

But this isn’t just an agricultural slump. The drop in Florida’s orange production mirrors a sharp decline in orange juice consumption across the United States. Over the past few decades, intake has fallen by more than 50%, according to Agribusiness studies. Health concerns, changing dietary habits, and rising prices have all contributed to turning consumers away.

Extreme weather events have battered Florida’s citrus industry, with hurricanes Irma, Ian, and Milton inflicting massive damage over the past decade. The combined toll on crops and infrastructure has resulted in multimillion-dollar losses. Adding to the strain is the relentless spread of citrus greening disease – known as huanglongbing (HLB) – a bacterial infection with no known cure. It blocks nutrient flow within trees and severely impacts fruit production.

To contain the disease, many growers have been forced to uproot infected trees – a measure that worsens the already dire situation.

Tropicana and the orange juice giants feel the squeezeMajor brands like Tropicana – once synonymous with orange juice in American households – are also facing turbulence. Despite their legacy in promoting fresh juice, structural market changes are eroding profitability. A recent shareholder report pointed to a drop in the brand’s value, highlighting the broader challenges across the juice industry.

Producers are now looking abroad for solutions, with countries like Brazil and Spain expected to play a greater role in the global citrus supply chain.

Global orange challengers

The crisis isn’t limited to Florida. Brazil, the world’s leading citrus producer, has also suffered. Years of drought in the country’s citrus belt have cut production for five consecutive seasons. However, recent regular rainfall has improved outlooks for Brazil’s 2024–2025 harvest – a glimmer of hope for the global market.

Still, the outlook for Florida’s citrus sector remains bleak. With domestic demand declining, natural disasters increasing in frequency and severity, and incurable diseases decimating orchards, growers are staring down an uncertain future.

While orange prices at supermarkets may have dipped, the long-term scarcity of fruit and economic pressure on producers signal deeper shifts in the citrus and juice markets. In the coming years, consumers could see a very different citrus landscape on grocery store shelves.

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