NBA’s most stunning trade cost Luka Doncic more than just a jersey

It was the end of an incredible season for Luka Doncic – in the truest sense of the word. No one would have believed what was about to happen when, less than a year ago, he led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals. At that point, it was the peak of a love story between player and franchise that had begun in 2018. Thanks to him, the Mavs were one of the most relevant teams in the league, the perfect transition from the Dirk Nowitzki era to the Doncic era. He was committed, integrated, seemingly on track to become a one-man club – like Nowitzki again. Occasionally, questions were raised about his fitness, weight, or complaints to officials, but those were just footnotes on what looked like a legendary career. In his first six seasons (2018–24), he was Rookie of the Year, a five-time All-Star, and five-time All-NBA First Team selection. Last season, he averaged an eye-watering 33.9 points (league leader), 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists, finishing third in MVP voting.

Swapping Dallas for LA: a Doncic life changer

But after that, following the Finals loss to the Celtics and the summer break, Doncic played just 22 more games for Dallas. Injuries disrupted the start of his next campaign, and a muscle strain ruled him out of the marquee Christmas Day matchup against Minnesota. He never played for the Mavs again. On February 2, the team traded him to the Los Angeles Lakers in what was arguably the most shocking and seismic move in NBA history. Only gradually did the full story emerge: the falling out with general manager Nico Harrison, and how the franchise’s ownership change – from Mark Cuban to the Adelson family (with Patrick Dumont now the main decision-maker) – gave Harrison the chance to act.

The trade had a profound effect on Doncic – personal, emotional, familial. He struggled to smile, even though the move had placed him in the most glamorous team in basketball, under the California sun, by the beach, in the land of Hollywood. A generational talent like him could never have imagined a team would want to let him go. But the trade also came with a huge financial cost. Doncic had been on track to sign a supermax extension with Dallas this summer – a five-year, $345m deal, the richest in NBA history. It would have eclipsed Jayson Tatum’s $315m, five-year extension with the Celtics.

Doncic had earned supermax eligibility by spending seven years with the Mavs and not switching teams during his rookie contract. That made him a “designated veteran” – a status that allows a player to sign a deal starting at 35% of the salary cap, with annual raises. But by being traded while on his second contract, Doncic lost that status.

When he was traded, he still had this season ($43m), next season ($45.9m), and a player option for 2026–27 ($48.9m) remaining on his deal. The plan had been simple: decline the option and sign that $345m supermax, kicking in for 2026–27. That’s what the trade cost him.

The final year of that deal (2030–31) would likely have been a player option too – a standard demand for stars negotiating maximum deals, keeping the door open for another extension a year early. The salary cap projections, based on an annual 10% increase from the current $140.5m, would have supported it.

Doncic’s original rookie deal (four years, $32.2m) was followed in 2021 by a rookie-scale supermax extension: five years, $215m. He had easily qualified for the 30% threshold – known as the “Derrick Rose Rule” – by making multiple All-NBA teams before his rookie deal expired.

Now, he finishes the season with only one guaranteed year left on his current contract. The Lakers, obviously, want to lock him in as soon as possible. The key date is August 2 – six months after the trade, the first day Doncic is eligible to sign an extension. If that deadline passes without a deal, things could get nervy in L.A. But for now, all signs point to Doncic staying. He’s happy in Los Angeles, satisfied with the spotlight the Lakers provide, and eager – as he has said publicly – to do in purple and gold what he wasn’t allowed to in Dallas: build a long, successful career.

Several options with a clear destination

There are several contract paths available to him now. The simplest is a straight veteran extension: four years, $228.6m, beginning in 2026–27. It would start at 30% of the cap with annual 8% raises – the max allowed for a traded player. It’s straightforward, but it would still mean $116.7m less than what he would have made in Dallas. The annual average drops from nearly $70m to just over $57m – and the contract ends a year earlier.

Another option is more strategic. It’s the path Donovan Mitchell took after his trade from Utah to Cleveland. Doncic could sign a shorter deal – three years, $165.3m – with a player option in the final season, expiring in 2028. That summer, he would reach ten years of NBA service, making him eligible again for a supermax-style deal: 35% of the cap, five years, 8% raises. That could net him around $417m over five years, bringing his total closer to what he lost.

This scenario, the most profitable in basic terms, still represents 116.7 million guaranteed less than what he was supposed to receive with the Dallas Mavericks. There, the annual average would have been almost 70 million annually; in the other, realistic, scenario, it would have been just over 57 million. And with one less year, because in the normal veteran extension you can’t go beyond five total extra years (in this case, the one he already has guaranteed - the next one - and the four new ones).

That’s the case in which Doncic can secure the largest possible amount of money and a future with the Lakers until 2030. In principle, and as always, with a player option for the previous summer (2029-30 season). But there is a maneuver with which the point guard can achieve a double salary objective: a not-too-short contract with enough money guaranteed for any eventuality (a serious injury that transforms the arc of his career, above all) and the possibility of getting closer to what has gone into limbo with the transfer from Texas to California.

It’s a route that Donovan Mitchell already took when he was traded from the Utah Jazz to the Cleveland Cavaliers and, like Doncic, lost his supermax extension option. The trick is to avoid going the usual route and not signing for the maximum number of years possible to secure the largest payout in millions. Instead, the key is to get a player option to start another contract when he completes ten years in the NBA, the moment at which he can jump from 30% to 35% of the cap in the first year. Like with the supermax. Doncic’s first step would be to once again waive his player option and sign a three-year, $165.3 million deal.

In this case, the player option in the last season (2028-29) is especially essential because in the summer of 2028 Doncic will celebrate his decade in the NBA (number 3 in the 2018 draft). There, after the 2027-28 season, he would rule out the player option and an extension would arrive, this one supermax thanks to those ten years of experience: it could be for five years and 35% of the salary cap to start (and the increases after 8%). Something similar according to the projections that can be made of the cap:

In total, 417 million over five seasons and the option to sign a final, top-tier contract afterward because he would still be 33 years old. This hybrid would allow Doncic to avoid the risk of playing with only a few years left on his contract and maximize his chances of earning as much money as possible in the coming seasons. If he wanted to take a real risk,he could wait until the summer of 2026 and become an unrestricted free agent. He would just have to skip the player option. It’s a path that almost no player, let alone the top players, choose because they are left vulnerable to any changing circumstances; in the league, in the market, with their physique...

If Doncic waits until he’s free and re-signs with the Lakers, a highly unlikely scenario because it would represent an unnecessary risk, he could earn $295.9 million over five years. He would start at 30% of the cap and raises would be 8%. A fifth year could be included, something that isn’t possible with many other options.

Doncic can finally wait to become a free agent and leave the Lakers, something that seems totally unlikely given the good connection between player and franchise in these first months together. He would have to avoid an extension now and then everything going completely wrong, both on a sporting and personal level.

The contract (which is intended to give an advantage to the last team the player belonged to) could only be for four years, and although it would also start at 30%, the increases after that would only be 5%. The total would be 219.4 million for four years.

Waiting until 2026 and entering unrestricted free agency is technically an option, but it’s extremely rare for elite players – too risky, and would mean turning down a guaranteed deal with the Lakers. Even then, the Lakers could re-sign him for five years, $295.9m (30% cap start, 8% raises). If he left entirely, another team could only offer four years, $219.4m (30% cap start, 5% raises).

Doncic holds all the cards. The most likely outcome is an extension with the Lakers in August. The only real question is whether he opts for maximum years now, or follows the Mitchell blueprint to maximize earnings in stages. First comes the money. Then comes the basketball – and whether the Lakers can build a team around him that truly contends. That, above all, is what both sides want.

[*Contractual percentages and salary figures have been calculated and compared with the excellent Spotrac database]

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