Time to celebrate? History reveals exactly how close the Thunder are to a historic NBA championship

The Oklahoma City Thunder are just one game away from first NBA championship in the history of the franchise - in its current guise - after taking a 3-2 series lead over the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA Finals.  

When can the Thunder be crowned NBA champions?

After falling 2-1 behind following Game 3, back-to-back victories for Shai Gilgeous-Aleaxnder and Co means they can now seal victory in Game 6, which will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Thursday, June 19. 

And the omens are good for the Thunder…although history shows they shouldn’t be cracking open the champagne just yet. 

The importance of a 3-2 lead in the NBA playoffs

Since the NBA playoffs were established in the 1940s, there have been 356 series in which the score was 3-2 after Game 5, according to data from Land of Basketball. 

Of those 356 games, the team leading 3-2 has won on 299 occasions (84% of the time). The most recent franchise to do so is the Pacers, who defeated the New York Knicks 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals to qualify for the NBA Finals. 

That means teams have recovered from a 2-3 deficit to win a series on 57 occasions (16% of the time). As a word of warning for the Thunder, the Pacers were also the last team to pull off that feat in the playoffs, again against the Knicks in the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2024. 

3-2 series leads in NBA Finals

If we only take NBA Finals into consideration, the chances of a dramatic comeback are slightly higher. 49 finals have gone to 3-2 at one point or another, with 40 teams (81.6%) of teams triumphing after holding a one-game lead after Game 5.

There have been nine examples of teams coming back from 2-3 down to win the championship (18.4%), although it hasn’t happened since the Cleveland Cavaliers recovered against the Golden State Warriors in 2016. 

While the Thunder have the momentum and history on their side, the Pacers will feel a dramatic NBA Finals is overdue. We’ll find out which way it swings soon enough.

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