Are the Bucs in the playoffs? What Tampa Bay needs after win over Panthers
The Bucs beat the Panthers on Saturday, but it wasn’t a winner-takes-all as expected, so they’re left waiting until tomorrow to know their playoff fate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did just enough to keep their season alive, but their playoff fate is no longer entirely in their hands.
Tampa Bay narrowly defeated the Carolina Panthers 16–14 on Saturday at Raymond James Stadium, improving to 8–9 and ensuring the NFC South race will be decided on the final day of the regular season. The win stopped Carolina from clinching the division outright, but it did not lock a playoff spot for the Buccaneers.
FINAL: The @Buccaneers hold on to keep their playoff hopes alive! pic.twitter.com/Who6CGd9LI
— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2026
Bucs keep playoff dream alive with win over Panthers: What they need now
The Buccaneers built an early lead and leaned on their defense late to survive a frantic Panthers rally. Quarterback Baker Mayfield finished 16-of-22 for 203 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Now, the Bucs and Panthers have the same 8-9 record, so despite the win, Tampa Bay has not yet clinched a postseason berth due to the league’s tiebreaker rules. The winner of the South and therefore the conference’s No. 4 seed is in the hands of the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.
The Buccaneers now need the Atlanta Falcons to lose to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. A Falcons loss would create a tie atop the division, with Tampa Bay winning the tiebreaker and advancing to the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
Now that the Buccaneers have beaten the Panthers, Tampa needs New Orleans to beat Atlanta to win the NFC South.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 4, 2026
If it doesn’t, the Panthers will be the NFC South champs and host a wild-card game next weekend as the NFC’s No. 4 seed.
Here’s why.
If the Falcons lose to the Saints, the Falcons would finish 7–10, leaving Tampa Bay (8–9) and Carolina (8–9) tied atop the division. In a two-team tie, the Buccaneers win the NFC South based on division tiebreakers, giving them the automatic playoff berth as division champions.
However, if the Falcons beat the Saints, all three teams - Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta - would finish 8–9, creating a three-team tie. In that scenario, the NFL uses head-to-head results among the tied teams first. Carolina owns the best combined head-to-head record against both Tampa Bay and Atlanta, so the Panthers would win the division and advance to the playoffs.
In summary...
- Falcons lose - two-team tie - Buccaneers win the NFC South
- Falcons win - three-team tie - Panthers win the NFC South
- Buccaneers’ season depends on Atlanta losing
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