Can the Cowboys make the playoffs? The exact probability for Dallas’ postseason chances
The Cowboys suffered a 34-26 home loss to the Vikings on Sunday and are on the verge of elimination from postseason contention.
The Dallas Cowboys suffered a damaging 34–26 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings and are now on the brink of elimination from the NFL playoffs. With three weeks left in the regular season, Dallas’ postseason odds have dropped to just 1%.
Through Week 15, the Cowboys sit at 6-7-1, second in the NFC East behind the Philadelphia Eagles, who are 9-5. Dallas currently ranks 10th in the NFC and no longer controls its own fate, needing a near-perfect finish and significant help to stay alive.
Can the Cowboys reach the playoffs?
With their wild-card hopes essentially gone after the loss to Minnesota, the Cowboys’ only realistic path to the postseason is winning the NFC East. To do that, Dallas must win its final three games to finish with a maximum of nine wins.
At the same time, the Eagles would need to lose all three of their remaining games. While Dallas and Philadelphia split their two head-to-head matchups this season, the Cowboys would hold a tiebreaker edge thanks to their tie against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4.
Even in that scenario, Dallas would still need several results around the league to break its way, making the margin for error nonexistent.
After Sunday night’s loss to Minnesota, the Cowboys are not officially eliminated from postseason contention, but it is a near impossibility. This what they now would need to win the division:
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 15, 2025
🏈Eagles would need to lose their final three games.
🏈Cowboys would need to win their… pic.twitter.com/07bcx0j2ef
Remaining schedule
Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Chargers at AT&T Stadium
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium
- Week 18: at New York Giants at MetLife Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles
- Week 16: at Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium
- Week 17: at Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium
- Week 18: vs. Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field
With little room left to maneuver, the Cowboys’ playoff hopes now hinge on a dramatic collapse by their division rival and a flawless finish of their own.
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