How is tiebreak decided if two teams finish level on points in the Premier League

While we may be in the final stretch of the Premier League campaign, there is still a long way and a lot of games to go. The Arsenal vs. Manchester City match has the feeling of a title deciding match, but no one is lifting any trophies at the end of the match form the Etihad.

Photo finish coming?

Arsenal have had a comfortable cushion over the rest of the league for most of the second half of the season, but that vice grip on the title is starting to slip, and if they lose at the Etihad on Sunday things could get awfully interesting going into the final month of the season.

With 70 points, the Gunners are currently six points clear of Manchester City, but today’s match could tighten the screws on the North London side. With a win, Pep Guardiola’s side would cut their deficit to three, and City have a game in hand. Arsenal have seen two title chases coming crashing to an end, and a loss away from home to their closest competitors could really complicate things as they near the finish line.

With 32 matches played, Arsenal have 18 more points up for grabs. If they take all 18 points from today until the end the season, they end up with 88 points and they would be champions, plain and simple. With 31 matches played, if City beat Arsenal, and then go on to win the rest of their six remaining matches, they will finish with 85 points. That would be the same amount of points Arsenal would finish with if they lost at the Etihad, but went on to the rest of their five remaining matches.

The lay of the law

While it is a long shot to see both teams finish the campaign taking all the available points after today, there are plenty of scenarios that could see City and Arsenal level on points at the end of the season. If that were to be the case, then it would come down to goal difference. If there is a tie at the top of the table, whichever team has the best goal difference is crowned the winner of the league. In the case of two teams finishing level on points, and level on goal difference then it goes down to head-to-head record.

Premier League rules state that “the number of goals scored, then the team who collected the most points in the head-to-head matches, then who scored most away goals in the head-to-head” will determine who finishes ahead of who in the table.

Different leagues use different tie breakers to decide who is crowned champion in these extraordinary circumstances. Like the Premier League, Liga MX, Ligue 1, and the Bundesliga use goal difference as their tie breaker. In Spain’s La Liga and Serie A they use head-to-head record first.

The last time the Premier League settled by a tie breaker that went down to goal difference was back in 2011/12. That was the year that Kun Agüero won the title for Manchester City with a stoppage time winner to level Manchester United on points. City had a goal advantage of 64, while United finished the season with a goal differential of 56.

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