Real Madrid
Real Madrid 89-74 Barcelona: why the LaLiga title race is already over
Kylian Mbappé’s hat-trick against Valladolid moved Carlo Ancelotti’s team onto 49 points. History suggests that’s an important mark after 21 games.

After Kylian Mbappé‘s hat-trick downed Valladolid, Real Madrid have a 93% chance of winning LaLiga this season. At least, that’s what the historical data suggests.
Why Real Madrid have all but clinched the LaLiga title
It’s not a bold claim, but a statistical one based on previous campaigns. In 14 out of the 15 seasons in which they had collected 49 points from 21 games, Madrid went on to win the title.
The only exception was the 2014/15 season, when Barcelona clinched the title thanks to a spectacular finish, edging out their Clásico rivals by just two points. That is the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record. With 49 points now in the bag, and a lead at the top (four points over Atlético Madrid, 10 over Barça, who have a game in hand), another victory for Carlo Ancelotti’s team looks inevitable.
To put things in perspective: the Spanish league is typically won with 84 points, based on the average of the last 10 seasons. In fact, the trend is downward: between 2014 and 2017, it took over 90 points to win the title, but in two of the last three seasons, even 80 points were enough. On average, 84 points are needed to be crowned champion. Madrid are on course to smash through that barrier.

How many points are Real Madrid projected to get in LaLiga?
Real Madrid are projected to finish this season with 89 points, if they keep up their average of 2.3 points per game. However, if we consider they’re performing better and more consistently now than earlier in the season, there’s reason to believe they could surpass 90 points. “I think it will take less than 90 points to be champion,” Ancelotti has previously said in a press conference. In accordance with the Italian’s forecast, there’s no need for the leaders to panic over occasional stumbles, as he predicts a season where the title contenders will frequently slip up.But if they maintain this pace, they’re on track for nearly 90 points and a 37th league title.
The cautionary tale of 2014/15
The only time Madrid didn’t lift the trophy having amassed 49 points from 21 games came in 2014/15, which was an especially high-scoring league.
In other words, eventual winners Barcelona were also performing exceptionally well, barely stumbling. Excluding the final matchday, where nothing was at stake, the Catalans won 12 of the last 13 matches. Madrid almost did enough (92 points), but their eternal rivals did just that little bit better (94). That season was more about Barcelona’s brilliance than Madrid’s shortcomings.

It looks highly unlikely it will take 90 points to win the title this season, although reaching that mark would almost certainly guarantee it.
How far ahead of Barcelona could Real Madrid finish?
Looking at Atlético Madrid, currently in second place, the task becomes clear: Diego Simeone’s team are on track for 82 points. Even if they improve slightly, they might reach 85 or 86 points. Barcelona, after a blistering start under Hansi Flick, have fallen away and will only get to 74 points unless their form drastically improves between now and May.
Team | Current points | Projected points |
---|---|---|
Real Madrid | 49 | 89 |
Atlético Madrid | 45 | 82 |
Barcelona | 39 | 74 |
Ancelotti has urged his players not to get carried away (“there is too long left to think it’s over”), but in the locker room, the players are finally starting to feel like the best team in the league. The most in-form, the most talented, and the most consistent, which should almost certainly lead to a second successive LaLiga title.
Original article written by Sergio López, translated with the assistance of AI and edited by Roddy Cons.
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