What do Pumas need to make Liga MX Apertura playoffs preliminary round? Results and permutations
With two games to play, Pumas are 16th in the Liga MX and struggling to make it into the postseason. Here’s what Los Universitarios need to do to qualify.
Pumas’ defeat to Cruz Azul on Sunday has left Los Auriazules in a critical situation. Andrés Lillini’s men need a minor miracle in their final matches if they’re to qualify for the Apertura 2022 postseason and prevent the tournament from being a failure.
Unlike most teams in the Liga MX, Pumas have two games left, having postponed their matchday-seven clash with Puebla to take part in the Trofeo Joan Gamper against Barcelona in August. This means that in the best-case scenario, they can finish the regular season on 20 points.
Qualification for playoffs prelim stage still possible
Both of Pumas’ remaining matches will be on the road: the first is at Puebla’s Estadio Cuauhtémoc on 23 September, and the second is away to Juárez on 30 September.
Sitting down in 16th in Liga MX, Pumas can no longer qualify automatically for the quarter-finals of the Apertura playoffs, but they are still within reach of a place in the postseason’s initial round. Los Universitarios are four points off 12th, the lowest position that brings qualification for the preliminary stage.
What results do Pumas need to avoid elimination?
If Pumas lose both of their matches:
They’re out.
If they draw both of their matches:
They’re out.
If they win one and lose one:
They’re out.
Those are the simple permutations. Now it gets complicated...
If Pumas win one and draw one:
It’s possible for them to qualify, but unlikely.
Crucially, Necaxa and Mazatlán also have a game in hand, against each other. If Mazatlán win it, Pumas need Necaxa and Atlético San Luis to lose their final match, and Tijuana to fail to win theirs. They would also need to make up a small goal-difference deficit (they’re currently one behind Necaxa and two behind San Luis).
If Necaxa beat Mazatlán, Pumas need San Luis to lose and relinquish their goal-difference advantage, and Mazatlán and Tijuana to fail to win.
If Pumas win both games:
Again, it depends on the result of Necaxa vs Mazatlán.
If Necaxa beat Mazatlán, Pumas need San Luis to fail to win; or Puebla to lose; or Puebla to draw and give up a +9 goal-difference advantage over Pumas.
If Mazatlán beat Necaxa, Pumas need two of the following to happen: Puebla either lose or, if they draw, they relinquish their goal-difference advantage over Pumas; Mazatlán either lose or, if they draw, they relinquish their goal-difference advantage over Pumas, which is currently +4; San Luis fail to win; Necaxa fail to win.
If Necaxa and Mazatlán draw, Pumas need two of the following to happen: Puebla either lose or, if they draw, they relinquish their goal-difference advantage over Pumas; Necaxa either lose or, if they draw, they relinquish their goal-difference advantage over Pumas; San Luis fail to win; Mazatlán fail to win.
See also:
Pumas winless away from home in Apertura 2022
It’s worth remembering that Pumas’ two Liga MX victories in the Apertura tournament have been at home; they have so far been unable to pick up three points away from the Estadio Olímpico Universitario.