Who is the favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or after the World Cup? Updated list of favorites

Despite England’s exit at the hands of Argentina in the World Cup semifinals, Harry Kane remains the favorite among most bookmakers to claim the 2026 Ballon d’Or for the first time in his career.

The Bayern Munich striker scored 61 goals in 51 games for his club in 2025-26, helping the German giants complete a league and cup double. Since moving to Germany in the summer of 2023, Kane has averaged more than a goal per game in the Bundesliga, scoring 98 times in 94 appearances and proving himself as the most lethal goalscorer in the world.

Kane also scored six goals for England at the World Cup, but he was outscored by Kylian Mbappé (10), Lionel Messi (eight), Erling Haaland and teammate Jude Bellingham (both seven).

Of those names, Mbappé and Messi appear to be in with the best chance of challenging Kane for the Ballon d’Or, although his stiffest competition is expected to come from two members of Spain’s World Cup-winning team, Rodri and Lamine Yamal.

Rodri’s incredible World Cup comeback

Any doubts about whether the Manchester City midfielder could return to his best after suffering a torn ACL disappeared on the field.

Rodri’s season with Manchester City, despite FA Cup and Carabao Cup success, was excellent rather than extraordinary. His World Cup was something else entirely.

The group stage allowed him to regain his rhythm. Once the knockout rounds began, he delivered one dominant performance after another before finishing the tournament as the World Cup’s Most Valuable Player.

His numbers were just as impressive as the eye test.

Dating back to the 1966 World Cup, no player has posted more touches (910), completed passes (756), successful passes in the attacking half (428), or successful passes in the final third (205) during a single tournament.

He dictated Spain’s tempo in difficult moments while anchoring a defense that produced the greatest defensive record by a World Cup champion, conceding just one goal throughout the tournament.

Lamine Yamal’s complete World Cup campaign

Lamine Yamal’s path was different.

His breakthrough season came with Barcelona, where he scored 24 goals, added 18 assists, and helped the club win LaLiga and the Spanish Super Cup. The UEFA Champions League slipped away, but he tormented Atlético Madrid in the semifinal second leg, scoring the opener as Barcelona nearly completed a dramatic comeback.

He arrived at the World Cup already among the favorites to become one of the tournament’s defining stars.

He left wearing that crown. Not as Spain’s leading headline-maker, but as one of the team’s most decisive players, willingly sacrificing individual brilliance when the team needed discipline instead.

Although he only managed one goal, Lamine Yamal finished the tournament as by far the most successful dribbler, averaging nearly six per game.

The Barcelona star did not produce the tournament’s most spectacular individual campaign, but he did produce one of its most complete.

Kane remains the player to beat

Many players have built impressive Ballon d’Or résumés this year, but only two can say they won the World Cup.

That said, the award, at this stage, appears to be Kane’s to lose.

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