AI picks a winner: This is who will lift the 2026 World Cup, according to three major chatbots
In an exercise of the utmost journalistic rigor, AS USA canvassed a trio of artificial-intelligence tools for their World Cup predictions.
France are the likeliest winners of the men’s World Cup this summer, according to AS USA’s (not even remotely) painstaking survey of three major artificial-intelligence tools. However, having pored over the tea leaves, gazed into a family pack of ultra-HD crystal balls, and shuffled their Tarot cards with breathtaking ferocity, our trio of trusty chatbots also say: watch out for those Spaniards, folks.
How did our AI World Cup survey work?
Today, in a display of journalistic prowess that will, surely, leave the Pulitzer Prize Board thunderstruck with admiration, I opened up Microsoft CoPilot, ChatGPT, and Google Gemini, and asked each AI tool the following question: “Which team will win the 2026 World Cup?”
While ChatGPT instantly came back with its outright pick, CoPilot and Gemini both initially tried to fob me off with bet-hedgy, multi-team answers. They were told, in the most forceful of terms, to show some blasted gumption and choose a side. (OK, so that’s a lie: In actual fact, a request of the utmost politeness was bookended by “please” and “thank you”; the way things are going, I’m taking no chances with how I address my AI interlocutors.)
Anyway, the results are as follows:
CoPilot: France
Microsofts’s AI tool, having first offered up five chief contenders - Argentina, Brazil, England, France and Spain - finally plumped for Les Bleus. It cited their “elite depth”, purring: “They have one of the strongest talent pipelines in world football.” CoPilot also pointed to the “peak age” of France’s stars - notably Kylian Mbappé, a voraciously goal-hungry striker who, at 27, is indeed in his prime.
Given that France have contested the last two World Cup finals, CoPilot added, their major-tournament consistency makes them the best bet. “No other team has matched that level of sustained performance,” the chatbot declared.
But: Now for the moment that rather undermined our entire conversation. When we thanked CoPilot for its time, it replied thusly: “You’re welcome! If you want, we can revisit the prediction closer to 2026 and see how things have changed - football form can shift a lot in a couple of years.” Erm, yeah, sounds like a plan: I’ll have my people talk to your people.
ChatGPT: France
Next up, ChatGPT thew in its two cents’ worth - and also named France as the men to beat in North America. While this chatbot didn’t need to be pressed before offering up a single frontrunner, it wasn’t exactly going all in on the French, either. It described Didier Deschamps’ team as the “slight favorite” to lift the title in mid-July, ahead of a Spain side that is “probably the biggest challenger” thanks to young stars like Lamine Yamal.
Like CoPilot, ChatGPT reasoned that France’s excellent World Cup prospects come down to: its talent pool (the phrase “elite depth” was also used); the presence of players, like Mbappé, who are in or around their prime; and the team’s tournament “consistency”. One could, you’ll be floored to hear, be forgiven for suspecting a touch of overlap in the online data perused by these AI tools.
Gemini: Spain
Unlike CoPilot, ChatGPT did appear to know what year it is. So, too, did Gemini - which was the only member of our AI prediction panel that didn’t pick France outright.
Google’s chatbot did, initially, name the French among a five-team group of “top betting contenders” - a quintet which, as with CoPilot, also included Argentina, Brazil, England and Spain. But, when asked to single out its likeliest winner, Gemini nominated the Spaniards.
Citing data provided by the soccer-stats specialists Opta, who give La Roja an unmatched 16.08% chance of winning their second World Cup, Gemini stated: “This data-driven edge comes from their tactical cohesion, dominant possession style, and a core group of elite young talents who already have championship-winning experience from Euro 2024.”
Curiously - in a departure from the results of our chatbot poll - Spain was also the choice, in a dead heat with France, when a major bank asked CoPilot for its tournament tip earlier this month. In its report “The Beautiful Game: BofA’s World Cup 2026 Guide,” Bank of America revealed that the AI tool gave the French and the Spaniards an “equal probability to win the World Cup”.
Economist targets prediction four-peat
Meanwhile, if you ask a German economist who has successfully predicted the last three World Cup winners, this year’s champion will be a team that CoPilot, ChatGPT and Gemini all left out of their chief favorites. Joachim Klement, the head of strategy at the Panmure Liberium investment bank, is backing the Netherlands to win their first title.
Several years before the explosion of AI technology, Klement developed a “proprietary econometric” projection model that accurately forecast Germany as winners of the 2014 World Cup. A system that blends socioeconomic variables with sporting data, it also foresaw France and Argentina’s victories in 2018 and 2022, respectively.
This year, according to Klement’s calculations, the Dutch will beat Portugal in the trophy decider.
Read more about Klement’s World Cup prediction model.
When is the 2026 World Cup?
The 23rd edition of the tournament, the 2026 FIFA men’s World Cup kicks off on June 11, when co-hosts Mexico take on South Africa in Mexico City. A competition expanded to 48 teams this year, it is to run until July 19, when MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, hosts the final.
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