What was the xG for crazy Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich UCL first leg?

Real Madrid may have dominated small stretches of the game, but the expected goals statistic paints a clearer picture of why Bayern Munich left with the advantage.

The final xG numbers read: Real Madrid 2.18 – 3.19 Bayern Munich, in a match that ended 2-1 to the German side.

Madrid-Bayern could have been goalfest

That gap is significant. While Madrid generated enough chances to justify at least one goal, Bayern consistently carved out higher-quality opportunities, especially in transition. Their attacking efficiency showed in both goals, with Luis Díaz striking just before the halftime whistle and then Harry Kane, who else, punishing sloppiness from Madrid again just seconds after the teams returned from the break.

Madrid’s xG total of 2.18 reflects volume as much as quality. They registered nine shots on target and controlled 51% possession, but too many efforts came from less dangerous positions or were comfortably handled. Kylian Mbappé’s late goal, arriving in the 74th minute, finally gave the hosts something tangible for their pressure. And more chances followed.

Bayern, by contrast, were more selective and more clinical in their buildup. Despite having fewer shots on target (seven), their chances carried greater threat. How Upamecano missed inside 10 minutes from virtually on the line remains a mystery. And then Gnabry after calamitous defending from the hosts.

Set pieces and transitions played a role too. Bayern won more corners (11 to 8) and frequently exposed gaps when Madrid pushed forward.

In the end, the xG aligns closely with the result. Bayern didn’t just win on the scoreboard, they won the quality-of-chances battle as well. Madrid will feel they had enough to take more, but the underlying numbers – as well as our eyes – show Bayern’s edge was real, not accidental.

Still all to play for in the second leg next week. And after tonight, we can’t wait...

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